When Melissa Brandts set up her camera to take a picture of her Canadian vacation, at the last second, a squirrel planted right in front of the camera’s lens - fascinated by the whirling sounds of focus. The picture made her and her husband laugh all the way back on the plane and now it’s going out in waves, having a network effect of comedy in the blogosphere. If that is not worth the price of a camera (with great autofocus), I don’t know what is. Laughter is pretty essential.
But Melissa probably thought the camera was essential - for her vacation or her life to enjoy it. So she made that commitment and purchase.
I’ve been thinking about new devices lately and especially about those people who take on a new device. Not an upgrade, but a new device for them. I’ve been reading about the new netbooks, new e-book readers, and the wonderful secret tablets and wondering - who is going to buy them in these recessionary times? Of course some folks always get the latest device, but let’s face it, in this economy, do you buy that new device? And besides the cost, do you add another device to your menagerie to carry? What is the tipping point that causes a breakthrough in adoption? And how will this change whole ecosystems?
Of course, if you build or sell devices, you’re already thinking about this. But devices drive a lot of new business opportunities for people all throughout the ecosystem. If you are in the tech business, opportunities like new services, apps, accessories, or new ways to do business and live for everyone else.
If you are developing business strategy, it really is gives you an edge to take a bead on what is happening with devices. And the good first place to start is to deeply consider — what is the desire that drives people to buy that new device? Your strategy will be more successful if it’s allied with the drivers of adding a new device to their personal habits. My next posts will discuss some of these drivers, but now, consider the new e-book readers, netbooks and the tablets. What will drive these to be ubiquitous in people’s lives? What makes people decide they have to have it?
The workplace could drive the adoption of new devices, but businesses worry about remote management, durability, and capabilities. The laptop is not going away. But if you need to do work walking around, a smaller device is a natural. What changes could wide adoption cause? Will we change to a more “walking around” workforce or change in some other way if new devices are adopted? Will these changes snowball the need to have the devices? As it is, the laptop changed the work habits of people crouched in conference rooms or coffee shops together. It’s easy to forget how the olds were chained to desktops with really bad microwave popcorn.
On paper, for a business, the analytical questions get down to: is it a good investment? Will we get value out of it?
But — “is it a good investment?” is a different question than, “is it essential?” In the case of investment, will it produce return? Sure. I can measure it. Is it essential? Essential has some emotional weight to it, it does have something to do with desire than just the ROI. And “essential” is required for to make that breakthrough to ubiquitous adoption.
Essential is not necessarily a straightforward calculation. The kingmakers somehow go beyond: “I’ve got to have to do” to “I’ve got to have to be as I want.” When a device like the iPod came out, it was the first music device to make a splash since the WalkMan. It was thin and light and environmentally essential to many people. Sure, music is enjoyable, but since the workplace has gotten crowded and public spaces are crowded, it is essential because it creates an environment where you can think, stay motivated, and tolerate the constant harshes to your mellow. And it was beautiful to carry. And don’t forget, it made the iTunes store essential…
Another dream that device executives have is that, outside of the workplace, kids will make their new devices spread. But it’s a tossup whether in a recession, businesses or parents are tighter with their wallets when it comes to adopting an entirely new device. Just taking cell phones, it’s becoming essential for contact and control for many parents to give their kids cell phones, with the age being the debated factor. But parents worry about investment with destructive wear and tear and loss sometimes even more so than businesses..
In fact, more parents would probably get a more powerful, costly phone for their kid if the loss and wear weren’t such a cost factor. A smarter phone can be argued to be a great investment on paper. For instance, smarter phones could be useful for younger kids for learning. Studies have been done that families with kids commuting to school can learn valuable lessons together about reading through exercises on their phone. You can say a phone is a logical, good investment: there’s a lot of ways to try and make that argument, but is it essential and what kind is essential?
When Palm made a drive through schools with their Pilots in the 1990’s the feeling was, it was essential to move forward. I was a part of some of those projects. The excitement was essential. Some of the sale was made on the savings over printed texts and the consolidation of scheduling and planning for students. But it was really the tech edge felt to be essential. This new technology was like the moon shot for schools the first year or so. What initially moved their first adoption, it was about the shared view that they were essential for kids to be successful and their schools to be “wow” and a point of pride is what really made the capital move on those projects.
When it comes to requiring new devices, colleges have an easier time of creating change, because they can require some things of their students. Also students demand more of technology. It’s a time where people will often jump up to a new laptop or even a smarter phone if they leave home for school. You’ve gotta have a laptop or netbook, and you’ve got to have good battery life to move around in lecture halls without plugs (get on the wifi or cellular broadband and you can drive the professor nuts) and perhaps certain types are fashionable. College school kids are driving the sales of the new netbooks. According to a 2009 study, with 34% of students planning to buy one, they are close to the percentage of those (49%) who plan to get a laptop.
So then, if someone gets a netbook or laptop, the question is: would they get a separate e-book device or tablet? Some have argued that if you can do it on the PC, why get a separate reader? I think it’s not all about consolidation to the PC on the e-book question. To have easy visiblity of a book and a computer screen would be handy. Even better, a drag and drop between them (for notes, of course). The battle for the next really new device, it seems to me, is between a tablet device and the e-book reader.
Between the different readers and tablets, the forces on competition will bring out waves of new products for the next few years. We’re at a special place in history where an entirely new device will be added to people’s habits. What features make it essential? And of course we have to consider captive content and stores swaying the market. We have not worked out permissions and even the format of the files. Would it matter to adoption with younger readers if you could only get the new Twilight book (or whatever) on one? Would it matter if they were more durable and cheaper? It will be an interesting to see what plays out.
Right now, though, it’s not work or school that is driving e-book readers, it’s the smart adult reader who wants it NOW.
Although Amazon doesn’t publish Kindle sales figures, surveys suggest Kindle users bulge in the over-forties. They are the serious readers, particularly out of the Amazon storefront, with some cash to lay down on a Kindle. Oprah pushes the Kindle and tells stories of downloading the best sellers to her device immediately. She could probably get the head of every publishing house on the phone immediately and get a book personally delivered, but it’s not fast enough. She can have what she wants when she wants in privacy. It has become essential. Therefore, by Oprah edict, it is for you. Resistence is futile…I kid.
Now, I enjoy browsing the local book stores, and unlike a 99 cent music download, I think longer before laying down cash on that content. But for professional research, like Oprah, I want my content NOW and searchable. And my content is multi-media too. And for some books by authors that I know, I want it NOW, instead of browsing and weighing it in a bookstore. So the now factor plays into my desire for one.
I haven’t added a Kindle to my device array yet, although I’ve used one for a time and enjoyed it a lot (an industry perk). But frankly, it’s a just matter of time until I add a reader or a tablet. For me, it’s not a matter of just doing it all on my PC, so that if I could read on my PC, I would and therefore save the money for a device. It’s not all about cost, although it is a factor. My phone has become a gateway drug to getting a reader or tablet, because I read from my phone. And, really, it’s like reading through a peephole. If you have brief, peephole material, it’s alright, but it’s not great. But the phone reading anywhere creates a desire. It’s not the content, because I can get the content in another way. It’s the new possibility of habit.
Adding that entirely new device has to do with my changing habits that demand content now, search, speed, along with a desire for portable, and a desire to recline — and have a separate mental state for reading.
Take paper magazines. When I get down to it, I like my paper magazines, because they are easy to carry and read reclining or propped up. But essentially, it’s all about mental state. I want to get away from my PC and exhale and get my groove back. And magazines or books can be a kind of a trip, aspirational and inspirational. It’s about what reading was supposed to accomplish. And part of that was a separate mental state from all that is going on in your desktop. When a device becomes essential to creating that experience anywhere in the mad, mad world, readers/tablets will be ubitquitous.
